War for the first battlefield electoral vote may have been decided this week before a ballot was cast. Private polls are preferred. Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to win.
In a wild election season that has seen Democrats replace Biden with Harris and Republican Donald Trump survive two assassination attempts while trying to become the first former president to avenge a loss, Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District is one of the most compelling subplots.
Because it’s one of two states—Maine is the other—that gives an elector to the congressional district’s most popular candidate, party operatives and political analysts are attracted by it.
Nebraska’s 2nd District could decide the Electoral College and presidency in recent presidential elections, which involved tens of thousands of votes in a few states.
Trump won 58.5% of the state in 2020, thus he pushed Nebraska to amend its law to give the winner all electors. His idea failed this week when GOP state Sen. Mike McDonnell, a former Democrat, opposed it.
Democrats’ counteroffensive outperformed GOP lobbying, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a Trump ally who visited the state to propose amending the legislation.
Nebraska Democratic Party head Jane Kleeb told NBC News she used her 18-year connection with McDonnell to lobby him. Democratic and thought leaders in the state did too.
They advised McDonnell to reject Trump to improve his chances of becoming mayor of Omaha, a more Democratic city than the district. They also saw municipal Harris campaign lawn signs and other indicators of support.
Democrats have spent $6.7 million on Nebraska commercials since Harris became their standard-bearer, compared to $170,000 for Republicans.
“We had an audience of one that we needed to make sure we had all of our facts and persuadable information so that as he was making his decision that he was going to stay with us,” Kleeb.
Words could persuade. The facts likely sealed the deal. McDonnell was shown a private Democratic survey of the district that showed how much his mayoral chances improved if he didn’t support Trump.
The poll was not disclosed, but Democratic leaders tested it, suggesting he may flip key Democrats into friends if he runs for mayor.
McDonnell did not respond to requests for comment.
Trump missed his effort to steal all five Nebraska electoral votes without running by failing to garner enough legislative votes.
A second Republican private poll, obtained with NBC News by a person familiar with its findings, explains why Trump wanted to change the rules and why Democrats should be confident in Harris’ 2nd District electoral vote chances.
That survey favors Harris over Trump by 9 points. Biden carried the district by over 22,000 votes in 2020, a margin higher than his victories in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin and approximately 7 percentage points.
Thus, neither camp views the district as the likely tipping point. If Trump wins on Election Day, he may be president. Harris might win the district but lose overall.
Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, have not campaigned in the district, but officials say they are not writing it off. Nobody has indicated plans to do so.
Democrats believe they will win their first electoral vote this week. Kleeb said the Biden camp has supplied the resources to run a complete get-out-the-vote effort until November and will not stop.
“Anybody in politics knows that tomorrow there could be something around the corner that shifts the race,” Kleeb. “We don’t take anything for granted and are going to continue to talk to voters.”