FiveThirtyEight, a website that tracks polls, says that Vice President Kamala Harris is beating former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin.
As Trump gets ready to visit Wisconsin on Saturday, FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls showed that his Democratic opponent was 2.9 percentage points ahead in the battleground state, with 47.5 percent of the vote to Trump’s 44.6 percent. This was Harris’s biggest lead in any of the swing states.
Since July 21, when President Joe Biden stopped his reelection campaign, Harris took his place at the top of the Democratic ticket. Since then, polls have shown that she is ahead of Trump by as much as 9 points in Wisconsin.
Polls showed that Trump was ahead of Biden by as much as 6 points in the state when Biden was the likely Democratic candidate. The Real Clear Politics poll tracker showed that Trump was ahead in Wisconsin by 3.3 points on the day Biden dropped out of the race.
Harris may have a lead in the Badger State, but it may be falling apart. In Wisconsin, some recent studies show that the candidates are tied, while others show that Trump is ahead.
In Wisconsin, a study done by Patriot Polling from September 1 to 3 showed that Harris and Trump were tied with 48% each. Z to A Research did a poll from August 23rd to 26th that showed the candidates were tied among people who were likely to vote in the state.
Between August 25 and August 30, polls from the Trafalgar Group and Emerson College showed that Trump was ahead by one point. Both polls gave him a lead that was within the error range of the polls.
Nate Silver, a pollster, also thought the state would be tied in November, but his average polling put the vice president 2.8 points ahead. In that time, the Democrats have added 0.3 points in the last week and 1.5 points in the last month.
FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model said that the Democrats would win Wisconsin by a score of 2.7%. The average of the polls that Real Clear Politics looked at put Harris 1.4 points ahead.
New studies from CNN, SSRS, Redfield and Wilton Strategies, and The Telegraph also show that among likely voters in the state, Harris is ahead of Trump by 4 to 6 points.
Because the race is so close in Wisconsin, both candidates are focusing on that state. Trump is going to a meeting in Mosinee on Saturday, and he’s going to probably talk about how inflation is hurting the state.
“Inflation in Wisconsin has placed a devastating financial burden on hardworking Wisconsinites, as the rising cost of living under Kamala Harris continues to erode paychecks and savings,” Trump’s campaign team said in an email.
Everyone in Wisconsin is affected by inflation in every part of their daily lives. Wisconsin residents have seen big price increases in a wide range of things, from trips with the family to the Wisconsin State Fair to basic things like rent, electricity, and food. Gas costs have also gone up, which makes traveling and commuting more expensive.
Newsweek has emailed the Harris and Trump teams to get their thoughts.
According to polls, including a recent CNN/SSRS poll, 34% of those polled in Wisconsin said the economy is the most important problem to them.
This would be Trump’s fourth campaign stop in Wisconsin this year. He has already held events in Green Bay, Waukesha, and Racine.
Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, spoke at Laborfest in Milwaukee earlier this week while he was in Wisconsin.
Biden changed Wisconsin blue in 2020 by just 0.7 points, the same amount of points that Trump won the state by in 2016.